11   Scenario Tests

 

11.1 Objective and scope of Scenario Tests

11.1.1
The objective of the scenario testing was to resolve whether, and if so to what degree, it would be acceptable to increase existing OZP plot ratios in Kowloon, taking into account the cumulative impact of such increases, not only on private redevelopment, but also on urban renewal and public housing projects, and new development areas.

11.1.2
Two plot ratio scenarios were defined, representing existing OZP plot ratio controls (Scenario 1) and a certain degree of plot ratio relaxation (Scenario 2).

11.1.3
Estimates were made of the amount of development which would be likely to take place in Kowloon under each of the two plot ratio scenarios, taking account of private sector redevelopment, Urban Renewal Strategy proposals, potential rezoning of G/IC sites, Housing Department Urban Restructuring proposals, public housing, and new development areas. Potential for private sector redevelopment was estimated using the DEVIN Model, which is described in Appendix J in Volume 2.

11.1.4
The scope of the tests was limited to an assessment of the impact of different levels of development on transport and sewerage infrastructure as these were considered to be the most critical constraints. The infrastructure tests were undertaken only for the year 2016, the long-term time horizon for the Metroplan and KDS Review.

11.1.5
The plot ratio and development assumptions used in the Scenario tests are set out in sections 11.2 and 11.4. The assumptions used in the transport tests are set out in Appendix A.

 

11.2 Plot ratio and development assumptions for scenarios

11.2.1
The two plot ratio scenarios for Kowloon comprised:

Scenario 1 - a base case: with existing OZP plot ratio controls, including the two tier plot ratio system for high density residential, i.e. R(A) zones, and PR12 for commercial and industrial zones

Scenario 2 - a relaxed case: for R(A) zones under the two tier system, assuming, for private sector developments, an additional residential PR1 and PR 1.5 for the upper and lower tiers respectively, and, for public housing developments, that they can achieve the upper tier plot ratio; PR15 assumed for commercial and industrial zones.

11.2.2
The domestic plot ratios used in the DEVIN Model for R(A) zones, were not the maximum permissible under the assumed controls. On all such sites it was assumed that developments would include either PR1 of retail floorspace in the case of non-prime retail sites or PR2 on prime retail sites. Prime retail sites are those for which the ratio of residential and retail accommodation values is sufficiently high to justify a second floor of retail use. The resulting domestic plot ratios for different classes or sizes of site are set out in Table 11.1.

Table 11.1 Plot ratio assumptions for Scenarios
OZP zone Site area Use Retail categroy Plot ratios
Scenario 1 (OZP)
Plot ratios
Scenario 2
R(A) private* > 400m2 Domestic non-prime 7.5 8.5
R(A) private* > 400m2 Non-domestic non-prime 1.0 1.0
R(A) private* < 400m2 Domestic non-prime 6.0 7.5
R(A) private* < 400m2 Non-domestic non-prime 1.0 1.0
R(A) private* < 400m2 Domestic prime 5.5 7.0
R(A) private* < 400m2 Non-domestic prime 2.0 2.0
R(A) public > 400m2 Domestic - 6.0 8.5
R(A) public < 400m2 Domestic - 6.0 7.5
R(B) - Domestic - 5.0 5.0
R(C) - Domestic - 3.0 3.0
SCAs - Domestic - as in OZP 3.0
I - Non-domestic - 12.0 15.0
C - Non-domestic - 12.0 15.0
G/IC - ** - ** **

Note:
*     including URS/LDC schemes
**   as supplied by PlanD

11.2.3
The assumptions for R(A) zones set out in Table 11.1 apply to private residential development as calculated by the DEVIN Model, to sites subject to URS proposals, to planned former LDC schemes (now taken over by the URA), to public housing developments projected to take place and to new development areas.

11.2.4
No changes were assumed in current OZP plot ratios for R(B) and R(C) zones (domestic PR5 and PR3 respectively) under either of the scenarios, except in the case of Special Control Areas. Under Scenario 2, all special plot ratio restrictions on sites in SCAs are assumed to be lifted, so that these sites are treated as standard R(B) or R(C) zones.

11.2.5
The DEVIN Model calculates the feasible potential GFA and flats (both retained and redeveloped) in 2016 on all existing sites zoned Residential, Commercial, and Industrial on OZPs (DEVIN sites), excluding those in the following categories:

  1. Urban Renewal Strategy sites
  2. Public housing estates
  3. Housing department restructuring schemes
  4. HOUSCOM sites
  5. New development areas
  6. Potential rezoning and redevelopment of G/IC sites

The basis for projections used for population and employment in these categories are described in Section 18.1 in Volume 2.

11.2.6
Estimates were made of the amount of development which would be likely to take place in Kowloon under each of the two plot ratio scenarios, taking account of private sector redevelopment (using the DEVIN Model), Urban Renewal Strategy proposals, potential rezoning of G/IC sites, HD Urban Restructuring proposals, public housing, and new development areas. Assumptions on population and employment on these non-DEVIN sites and how the full data set was created are set out in Appendix L.

11.2.7
The full set of population and employment data for Kowloon under Scenarios 1 and 2 is included in Appendix M.

 

11.3 Development levels under scenarios

11.3.1
The population and employment levels for Kowloon in 2016 under the two scenarios are set out and compared with 1999 levels in Tables 11.2 and 11.3 respectively.

Table 11.2 Population in 1999 and 2016 by Scenario
Housing Sector 1999 difference
1999 to S1
2016
Scenario 1
difference
S1 to S2
2016
Scenario 2
difference
1999 to S2

Private Housing

1,000,000

220,000

1,220,000

140,000

1,360,000

360,000

Public Housing

1,030,000

340,000

1,370,000

170,000

1,540,000

510,000

Other *

80,000

- 20,000

60,000

-

60,000

- 20,000

Total Population

2,110,000

540,000

2,650,000

310,000

2,960,000

850,000

Note: * Other population includes institutional, non-domestic, temporary and hotels

11.3.2
Table 11.2 shows a substantial increase in population in Kowloon of 540,000 from the 1999 population of 2.11m to the 2016 population of 2.65m under Scenario 1 (OZP). The relaxed plot ratio scenario then shows a major addition to this baseline population projection for 2016 between Scenarios 1 and 2 of 310,000.

Table 11.3 Population in 1999 and 2016 by Scenario
Employment Sector 1999 difference
1999 to S1
2016
Scenario 1
difference
S1 to S2
2016
Scenario 2
difference
1999 to S2
E1 93,000 - 13,000 80,000 - 4,000 76,000 - 17,000
E2 143,000 - 5,000 138,000 6,000 144,000 1,000
E3 124,000 46,000 170,000 - 1,000 169,000 45,000
E4 360,000 96,000 456,000 24,000 480,000 120,000
E5 448,000 72,000 520,000 64,000 584,000 136,000
Total 1,168,000 196,000 1,364,000 89,000 1,453,000 285,000

Note:
E1 = Manufacturing; E2 = Transport/utilities; E3 = Wholesale/retail; E4 = Office;
E5 = Government and personal services

11.3.3
Table 11.3 also shows employment increases from 1999 for the two scenarios but these are proportionally much lower than those for population. Total employment is projected to increase in Kowloon by 200,000 from the 1999 level of 1.17m to the 2016 level of 1.36m under Scenario 1 (OZP). The relaxed plot ratio scenario then shows an addition to this baseline employment projection for 2016 between Scenarios 1 and 2 of 90,000. As result of this limited employment increase the ratio of jobs to population in Kowloon is projected to decrease from 0.55 jobs per resident in 1999 to 0.51 and 0.49 under Scenarios 1 and 2 respectively.

11.3.4
Table 11.4 summarises the contributions made by different housing sectors to the total populations projected for Kowloon under the various scenarios. It is clear that the percentage of the total population increase between Scenarios 1 and 2 contributed by unassisted private development/redevelopment (6%) and by URS/URA schemes (8%) represent only a small proportion of the total increase arising from plot ratio relaxation. Some 47% of the increase is due to Housing Department Restructuring Schemes, 24% to new development areas and 15% to other public housing.

Table 11.4 Distribution of population increase
between scenarios by source and housing sector
Source Sector Scenario 1 Scenario 2 S2 - S1
value
S2 - S1
%
Unassisted private

677740

697731

19992

6%

URS/URA* private

133483

157577

24094

8%

HD Restructuring private

188809

269000

80191

26%

HD Restructuring public

434000

500000

66000

21%

HD Restructuring total

622809

769000

173000

56%

Public Housing public

591000

637000

46000

15%

New dev areas** private

219968

235692

15724

5%

New dev areas** public

345000

403000

58000

19%

New dev areas** total

564968

638692

46914

15%

Other *** -

60000

60000

0

0%

Total private

1220000

1360000

140000

45%

Total public

1370000

1540000

170000

55%

Total total

2650000

2960000

310000

100%

Note:
* Other URS/URA sites are included within HD restructuring areas
** Other new development area sites are included within HD restructuring areas
*** Includes non-domestic, temporary and institutional population

11.3.5
The full set of population and employment data for Kowloon under Scenario 1 is included in Appendix M.

 

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