12   Transport Assessment

 

12.1 Key assumptions

12.1.1
While the Capacity Constraints Analysis for the Metroplan Review, described in Chapter 18, was based on the CTS-3 traffic demand assumptions, these assumptions had been amended by Transport Department to reflect the latest trends in growth of the vehicle fleet and GDP, the by the time of the Scenario testing for the KDS Review discussed here. The assumptions for both sets of assessments are shown in Appendix A in Volume 2.

12.1.2
The latest assumptions reflect slower growth than adopted in the recently released CTS-3, as shown in Table 12.1. However these lower growth rates do not imply that the CTS-3 forecasts for 2016, say, are not achieved, rather a delay in their being reached; there is a delay for cars and GDP of about 6 years or so if the new lower growth rates are maintained post 2016. A longer delay is projected for goods vehicles to build up although it can be argued that the assumed 1% pa growth in goods vehicles numbers may be on the low side. The downward effect of reductions in the manufacturing sector has probably worked itself out and fleet size and goods vehicle activity as observed by the Annual Traffic Census have remained buoyant in recent years.

Table 12.1 Comparison of assumptions
Item
1996

- Base


2000

- For Information

2016 Assumptions

- CTS-3

2016 Assumptions

- Latest


Year

- Year by which CTS-3 growth is reached based on latest growth

Private Vehicle Fleet 316,000 352,300 618,000 539,000 2022
Goods Vehicle Fleet 116,900 114,700 184,700 134,000 2046
GDP Growth

Base

 2.7%pa
over 1996
4.4% pa
over 1996
3.5% pa
over 1996
2021

12.1.3
The total traffic flow is a mix of several vehicle types: public transport, private vehicles and goods vehicles. Private vehicles and public transport dominate the AM peak. The deferral by 5 to 6 years of CTS-3 projected levels of GDP and private vehicle numbers will therefore affect peak travel demands. As goods vehicle growth to match that of CTS-3 is now projected to occur much later, CTS-3 conditions for the peak as a whole are likely to be achieved 5-10 years later than 2016, depending on the speed of growth of goods vehicles/commercial traffic.

12.1.4
Assumptions used for transport infrastructure in the present assessments were very similar to these adopted for CTS-3 (see Appendix A in Volume 2). The Port Rail Line (PRL) and the Regional Express Line (REL) were omitted from the analysis, however, as their impacts are likely to be small and they could be argued to generate either slight increases or decreases in traffic. The purpose of the PRL is to increase the attractiveness of the SAR Port by providing a direct rail link from the port into the inland provinces and therefore increasing the SAR market share of the container trade of these areas. Therefore much of the traffic carried by the PRL would not be on the SAR roads in the absence of PRL (because it would not occur in the SAR) and therefore there would be little impact. Similarly the REL is targeted at long distance traffic, which would either be generated, or diverted from either the current forecast of cross boundary rail or from the private modes; this would require a modification of the cross boundary forecasts which have already been specified. Both the PRL and REL are unlikely to have significant impact on the current forecasts of road volumes.

 

12.2 Strategic background

12.2.1
In principle and from a strategic transport point of view, the concentration of more population within Kowloon could bring significant benefits to the SAR as a whole. If the urban transport network can accommodate the larger population then the investment in new infrastructure in the New Territories could be delayed. There are also potential benefits to the residents arising from shorter travel distance and time.

12.2.2
The issue of balance between the New Territories and the urban area is one that needs to be addressed at the Territorial Development Strategy level. However it underlies this KDS Review as the techniques used in examining the traffic implications of relaxation are based on assessing the impact of relocating population back to the urban area, rather than assuming that relaxation would allow the SAR population to increase. Some benefits potentially arising from plot ratio relaxation would not occur if it affected total population for the SAR.

12.2.3
Table 12.2 shows that usage of the highway network increases sharply from the Base Year (1996) to the scenarios for 2016. This sharp increase arises from the large increase in population - 2m additional population in the SAR between 1999 and 2016 - together with the increase in number of vehicles and the dispersed Territorial development pattern. Although the additional population is similar in magnitude to the gain in population between the mid 1970s and 1999, the increase in traffic will be higher because of the higher income levels and more dispersed nature of SAR development. The development also needs to be placed in the context of the large growth in cross boundary travel. Planned new links with the Pearl River Delta are generating a further pressure for increased usage of the SAR's transport network. This is taken into account in the assessment.

12.2.4
From the Scenario 1 base, the reallocation in Scenario 2 of 310,000 additional population, from the New Territories to urban Kowloon reduces the amount of travelling in the SAR. The reduction occurs because the population is located closer to work places and major leisure attractions, reducing the need to travel. This reduction occurs at all periods of the day, AM, PM and off-peak. The average trip lengths for public and private trip making would decrease as a result of relaxation of plot ratio in Kowloon. Also, the proportion of population using road vehicles decreases as there are more opportunities for using public transport modes in the urban area.

Table 12.2 Strategic indicators for SAR
- 1996
(a)
2016
Scenario 1
(OZP) (b)
2016
Scenario 2
(c)
(b)/(a) (c)/(a)
AM Network Pcu km (000's)

1,839

3,196

3,122

1.74

1.70

Average Trip length (Km)

- Private Vehicle
- Public Transport Passenger

 

8.6
8.4

 

10.7
10.9

 

10.9
10.8

 

1.25
1.30

 

1.27
1.29

Mode Split

- Car
- Taxi
- SPB
- PT (bus, ferry and rail modes)

 

12.2%
8.2%
7.6%
72.0%

 

11.7%
7.2%
5.4%
75.8%

 

11.7%
7.1%
5.3%
75.9%

 

-
-
-
-

 

-
-
-
-

 

12.3 Strategic highways

12.3.1
There is significant increase in travel on strategic roads from 1996 to 2016 as can be seen from the growth in screenline crossings shown in Table 12.3. (The screenline locations are indicated in Figure A4 in Appendix A.) The critical item is the growth to 2016, but there are then only minor changes in the strategic vehicle flows resulting from the additional relaxation of plot ratio. There is strong growth, 74%, in the Western section of Kowloon External where travel from Lantau and North West enters Kowloon, and 130% at the Eastern section reflecting growth of TKO. The Central corridor carrying the traffic from the more mature Shatin - Fanling corridor grows only by 17%. Within the urban area, South Kowloon (which includes Route 3 and West Kowloon reclamation roads) and Cross Harbour screenlines grow by about 74%, reflecting the development of the Reclamation and the "pull" of Hong Kong Island with the large growth of jobs forecast for the North Shore. Within Kowloon the traffic growth is more modest, at 27% for screenline A-A, which represents the east-west movement; this is more in line with the scale of development within Kowloon.

Table 12.3 Growth of traffic at strategic screenlines; AM peak flow in peak direction
Screenline 1996
(a)
2016
Scenario 1 (OZP) (b)
2016
Scenario 2
2016
(b) / (a)
Kowloon External West(1) 15,200 26,400 26,500 1.74
Kowloon External Central(2) 12,700 14,800 14,700 1.17
Kowloon External East(3) 4,700 10,800 10,300 2.30
A-A (the KCR Line) 22,700 28,800 29,800 1.27
CC (South Kowloon) 21,500 37,200 37,700 1.73
Cross Harbour (WHC, CHT, EHC) 9,500 16,800 16,600 1.77

Note:
(1) The West Section separates Kowloon from Tsuen Wan at Lai Chi Kok and includes Route 3.
(2)
The Central Section covers the Shatin / MOS corridor and includes Tai Po Road, Route 9,
     Lion Rock and Tate's Cairn. 
(3)
East Section covers the access to Tseung Kwan O and Sai Kung.

12.3.2
There is significant deterioration from base year to Scenario 1 (OZP) in 2016, and some further deterioration as the additional population is located in the urban area. The further deterioration does not extend the number of overloaded links but results in some of them becoming worse. Travel delays which would have been poor would become poorer because excess traffic causes delays to other traffic which build up in a compound manner. In other words, if conditions under Scenario 1 are poor, adding further traffic in Scenario 2 would not be recommended, although the increased traffic flow is only marginal.

12.3.3
The performance of a selection of the overloaded strategic links is shown in Table 12.4 under the different development strategies. As more population is located in Kowloon the use of roads such as Tate's Cairn, which carry people to the urban area, decreases but congestion in the urban area such as on the Central Kowloon Route increases.

Table 12.4 Operational statistics for selected major roads; Volume to Capacity ratios for travel demand
Congested Link (1) 1996 Base 2016
Scenario 1 (OZP)
Base 2016
Scenario 2
Tate's Cairn Tunnel SB 1.31 1.23 1.18
Lion Rock Tunnel SB 1.40 1.22 1.27
Tai Po Road SB 1.12 0.96 0.89
Eastern Harbour Crossing SB 1.20 1.36 1.33
Cross Harbour Tunnel SB 1.43 1.39 1.40
Western Harbour Crossing SB - 1.29 1.26
West Kowloon Corridor SB 1.19 1.01 1.03
West Kowloon Expressway SB - 1.20 1.17
Central Kowloon Route SB - 0.94 0.95
Gascoigne Road SB 1.03 1.11 1.15
Tung Chau Street SB 1.03 1.10 1.23
Shanghai Street SB 1.14 1.27 1.27
Slip Road from LRT to Lung Cheung Rd EB 0.98 1.08 1.10
Shatin Pass Road EB 1.04 1.13  1.15
Tung Sing Road NB (1)    1.84 1.83 1.83
Slip Road from TCT to Kwun Tong Rd SB 1.13 1.04 0.99
Hung Hom Bypass SB - 1.05 1.07
Wuhu Street SB 1.19 1.12 1.15
Hip Wo Road SB 0.96 1.10 1.27
Kai Tin Road SB 1.10 1.15 1.17
Kai Tin Road to EHC SB 1.31 1.48 1.45
Note:
(1) Traffic on hourly overloaded link would block back and after against junction or use adjacent roads where possible; the maximum V/C ratio which can be accommodated is 1.15.

12.3.4
The above analysis takes no account of the timing of major infrastructure provision up to 2016. Some key items of strategic highway infrastructure have been delayed to 2011 in the assumed programme, most critically the Central Kowloon Route. The original KDS stressed the need for this road and recommended that it be brought forward from 2006 to 2002-3 if possible. This emphasis is supported by the present analysis. It would be unwise to release development potential in Kowloon up to a decade earlier than the expected implementation date of this road.

12.3.5
The analysis shows that there are some problems in the strategic highway network which should be addressed. The performance is similar in several respects to that at present and is broadly similar under the two scenarios. There are pockets of congestion in the AM peak in most areas, including Lai Chi Kok, Mong Kok, To Kwa Wan, Wong Tai Sin, Kwun Tong and Lei Yue Mun; and cross harbour routes are congested. As these congestion levels are similar in some areas to what has been previously observed it could not be said that these are unacceptable. However, action to resolve these issues would be appropriate and could involve policy measures, for example to encourage a switch to public transport.

 

12.4 Public transport

12.4.1
Public transport flows will also change as a result of the changes in land use pattern between the two scenarios. Overall public transport passenger kilometres decrease as shown in Table 12.5. Because a fixed SAR population is maintained between S1 and S2, there are more people in the Metro area under S2 than S1, and therefore less need to travel to the jobs located in the urban area. This reduction in commuting is shown by the reduction in rail passenger kilometres with minor reduction in usage of other public modes.

Table 12.5 Passenger kilometres by mode
[Daily Passenger KM (000's)]
Mode 1996 2016
Scenario 1 (OZP)
2016
Scenario 2
Rail

26,086

103,190

101,270

Bus

33,776

60,780

60,540

PLB

6,879

10,360

9,970

Tram/LRT

2,537

2,480

2,140

Ferry

1,338

1,690

1,690

Total

70,617

178,500

175,610

12.4.2
There is a decrease in flows on the major rail links from the New Towns between Scenarios 1 and 2, as shown in Table 12.6, but this is small and is likely to be made up by normal growth so it should be viewed as a delay in patronage rather than a permanent loss. The network is operating generally within capacity although the Yau Tong-Quarry Bay link is under pressure. However, it should be noted that the Shatin-Central Line (HUH-EXH) could provide an alternative rail path for cross harbour travel from East Kowloon, so there are alternatives available to supplement the sections approaching or at capacity.

Table 12.6 AM peak rail flows at strategic rail links (000's) in peak direction
Area Stations
- Cross Harbour
1996 2016
Scenario 1 (OZP)
2016
Scenario 2
KOW - HOK

-

62

60

TST - ADM

69

51

52

HUH - EXH

-

70

70

YAT - QUB

24

85

84

Total

92

268

266

Area Stations
- Kowloon External
1996 2016
Scenario 1 (OZP)
2016
Scenario 2
TAW-KOT

43

72

70

TAW-DIH

-

37

35

TKL-YAT

-

63

57

TWW-MEF

-

72

68

LAK-MEF

47

49

51

LAK-NAC

-

53

51

Total

90

346

332

Area Stations
- Mid Kowloon
1996 2016
Scenario 1 (OZP)
2016
Scenario 2
NAC-OLY

-

59

57

NAC-WKN

-

58

59

YMT-JOR

80

63

64

MKK-HUH

21

51

50

TKW-MTW

-

50

52

CHH-KOB

30

55

58

Total

131

336

340

Area Stations
- Island Line
1996 2016
Scenario 1 (OZP)
2016
Scenario 2
FOH-EXH

-

40

40

TIH-CAB

47

82

81

Total   

47

122

121

Area Stations
- Nathan Corridor
1996 2016
Scenario 1 (OZP)
2016
Scenario 2
YMT-JOR

84

63

64

Area Stations
- Lantau
1996 2016
Scenario 1 (OZP)
2016
Scenario 2
YAO-TSY

-

39

36

Note: Capacity of rail link in range 75,000-85,000.

12.4.3
There is only limited change in bus and PLB/GMB traffic as a result of the changes between S1 and S2 and it is generally within a 10% span (see Table 12.7). The increase in bus requirement would be much less, and could even be zero, because with a wide range of routes operating in the urban area, much of the growth could be accommodated by higher vehicle occupancy and therefore better utilisation which would in turn lead to fare levels lower than they otherwise would be.

Table 12.7 Growth of bus and minibus travel at screenlines (daily 000's)
Screenline 1996 2016 Growth over 1996
Scenario 1 (OZP)
2016 Growth over 1996
Scenario 2
Cross Harbour 662 1.24 1.25
Kowloon External 1,142 1.30 1.31
A - A (KCR Line) 1,009 1.28 1.38
C-C (South Kowloon) 923 1.39 1.46

 

12.5 District and local highways

12.5.1
The critical issue is travel conditions on the non-strategic network by which traffic from new development would join the strategic network. For large-scale development such as the urban restructuring schemes being planned by the Housing Department, the local access roads are likely to be redesigned as part of the scheme. However, where development occurs in a piecemeal manner there are concerns about the ability of local roads to accommodate the additional traffic generated.

12.5.2
To investigate the ability of the local distributors and their junctions with the strategic roads to accommodate the growth, various analyses were carried out. Table 12.8 shows the growth in AM Peak trip ends for various local areas under Scenario 1 and 2. Overall, 24% growth in AM peak generations (reflecting residential population between 1996 and 2016) is forecast and 25% in attractions (reflecting jobs). However, when the growth located on the reclamations (where it is anticipated that local and distributor roads will be adequately sized) is excluded, these figures are 8% and 15% respectively. If trip making keeps pace with development on average, traffic in local Kowloon roads can be expected to grow by about 25%. Under Scenario 2 the growth rate becomes over 30%. The growth rates are highest at Cha Kwo Ling, Sau Mau Ping, Ngau Chi Wan, all in East Kowloon, although Tsim Sha Tsui has large increases in absolute terms.

Table 12.8 Peak hour trip ends by area
Area Generation Ends

1996

Generation Ends

2016
Scenario 1 (OZP)

Generation Ends

Growth by Scenario
1 (OZP)

Generation Ends

Growth by Scenario
2

Attraction Ends

1996

Attraction Ends

2016
Scenario 1 (OZP)

Attraction Ends

Growth by Scenario
1 (OZP)

Attraction Ends

Growth by Scenario
2

Cha Kwo Ling

1,840

3,514

1.91 2.18

1,722

3,756

2.18 2.45
Kwun Tong

10,911

8,707

0.80 0.90

13,783

13,477

0.98 1.08
Sau Mau Ping

2,466

3,385

1.37 1.59

2,278

3,892

1.71 1.92
Ngau Chi Wan

1,788

2,509

1.40 1.52

1,410

2,090

1.48 1.59
Wong Tai Sin

5,485

5,732

1.04 1.11

5,617

6,285

1.12 1.18
Kowloon Tong

5,049

6,148

1.22 1.33

4,668

4,400

0.94 1.06
Sham Shui Po

5,287

5,778

1.09 1.21

5,625

6,678

1.19 1.32
Tai Kok Tsui

4,114

3,887

0.94 1.02

5,205

5,467

1.05 1.14
MongKok & Yau Ma Tei

3,396

3,517

1.04 1.08

5,094

5,914

1.16 1.22
Ho Man Tin & Hung Hom

7,359

7,683

1.04 1.11

6,406

7,132

1.11 1.17
Tsim Sha Tsui

5,364

6,668

1.24 1.26

10,631

12,848

1.21 1.22
Kowloon Point Area

22

1,241

- -

16

1,224

- -
West Kowloon Recl.

2,696

6,587

2.44 2.60

3,140

7,493

2.39 2.58
Kai Tak & Kl. Bay Recl.

1,430

5,335

3.73 4.38

2,825

4,888

1.73 1.83

Kowloon Total

57,208

70,693

1.24 1.35

68,420

85,546

1.25 1.35
Central / Western HK

12,306

15,511

1.26 1.26

14,238

18,746

1.32 1.30
Wanchai

9,728

9,666

0.99 0.99

11,633

11,360

0.98 0.97
Eastern HK

13,077

11,645

0.89 0.89

11,868

12,236

1.03 1.03
Southern HK

8,873

9,993

1.13 1.13

7,074

8,633

1.22 1.21
HK Island Total

43,984

46,815

1.06

1.06

44,813

50,974

1.14

1.13

12.5.3
Table 12.9 shows vehicle kilometres per kilometre on roads, excluding trunk roads, in six broad areas (generally equivalent to District Council areas, excluding reclamations) for the AM periods. This statistic represents "flow", and shows a growth over base year ranging from 5% for Yau Tsim to 13% in Kwun Tong. The further increase between Scenarios 1 and 2 is strongest in East Kowloon sectors, with small growth in the west. However traffic growth between Scenarios is less than the increase in development because the better matching of jobs and population allows shorter trips to be made, and some trips switch to walking. Table 12.10 shows that generally speeds on the local and district roads are forecast to decrease under Scenario 1, apart from in the Sham Shui Po area where the new Western Corridor allows an increase.

Table 12.9 Comparison of performance of local roads and local distributors by area
Area Distance (km)
1996
Distance (km)
2016
Vkm / km
1996
Vkm / km
2016
S1
Comparison of 2016 to 1996 - S1 Comparison of 2016 to 1996 - S2
Yau Tsim 29 29 818 859 1.05 1.06
Mong Kok 18 18 919 1006 1.09 1.12
Sham Shui Po 29 29 792 837 1.06 1.13
Kowloon City 39 40 605 647 1.07 1.12
Wong Tai Sin 27 24 619 656 1.06 1.10
Kwun Tong 76 76 631 713 1.13  1.18
South East Kowloon Development - 37 - 709 - -
West Kowloon Reclamation - 27 - 805 - -
Note: Road length may decrease between 1996 and 2016 due to reclassification of roads.

 

Table 12.10 Comparison of speeds
Area Speed (km/h)
1996

(a)
Speed (km/h)
2016
S1
(b)
Speed (km/h)
2016
S2
(c)
Ratio of 2016 to 1996
S1
(b)/(a)
Ratio of 2016 to 1996
S2
(c)/(a)
Yau Tsim 17.3 17.6 17.4 1.02 1.01
Mong Kok 16.4 16.1 15.7 0.98 0.96
Sham Shui Po 14.2 16.9 15.9 1.19 1.12
Kowloon City 19.7 20.5 19.6 1.04 0.99
Wong Tai Sin 24.3 23.0 22.2 0.95 0.91
Kwun Tong 19.7 18.4 17.6 0.93 0.89
South East Kowloon Development - 30.3 - - -
West Kowloon Reclamation - 18.1 - - -

12.5.4
Table 12.9 showed that there is approximately from 1% to 7% more usage of local roads as a result of the relaxation between Scenario1 and Scenario 2. The local roads are the elements of the highway provision which will be under most pressure. The original KDS highlighted a number of areas with critical junctions.

Area 1 : Kowloon Tong - Junctions on Waterloo Road and on Boundary St.
Area 2 : Hung Hom/ To Kwa Wan - Junctions on To Kwa Wan Road and Ma Tau Wai Road and Wu Hu Street/Chatham Road.
Area 3 : Yau Ma Tei/ Tsim Sha Tsui - Junctions on Nathan Road, Chatham Road.
Area 4 : Sham Shui Po/ Mong Kok - Junctions of Nathan Road, Mongkok Road, Prince Edward Road, and the Cheung Sha Wan Road, and Nam Cheong St.
Area 5 : Lai Chi Kok/ Cheung Sha Wan - Junctions on Cheung Sha Wan Road and Tonkin St.
Area 6 : Kowloon Bay/ Kwun Tong - Junctions on Kwun Tong Road and Wai Yip Street and Kai Cheung Road.
Area 7 : Kwun Tong/ Yau Tong - Junctions on Lei Yue Mun Road

12.5.5
These areas are spread throughout Kowloon and contain junctions which are well-known problem areas. This Study has not examined detailed junction performance, as much would depend on the precise location of all the potential developments and this is not known. However traffic growth on the roads in the vicinity of these junctions was estimated in order to indicate the potential increases which would need to be accommodated. This is shown in Table 12.11.

Table 12.11 Growth of traffic in critical areas, 2016 over 1996
Area S1 (OZP) S2 Comment
1 1.05 1.09 Waterloo Road traffic increases.
2 1.10 1.12 Strong growth on To Kwa Wan.
3 1.14 1.20 Growth on Nathan Road.
4 1.00 1.03 Growth on Prince Edward.
5 1.08 1.16 Growth on Tonkin Street.
6 1.01 1.05 Growth on Kai Cheung Road & Hoi Bun Road.
7 1.17 1.15 Growth on Lei Yue Mun and TKO Road.

12.5.6
Generally traffic conditions are worse in the future than today and are worse under Scenario 2 than under Scenario 1, by up to 5% depending on area. Growth in traffic demand once junctions and links are overloaded may cause a significant increase in delays. If the cycle time at a significant junction is say two minutes, overloaded traffic will need to waste four minutes and the queuing traffic may well block back and queue other delays. The new strategic links such as CKR help to relieve some areas and some junctions near the boundary of Kowloon and serving traffic from the New Territories may have small traffic reductions. However, overall there is additional traffic in the areas served by the junctions under Scenario 1 and there will be excess journey times as a result. The change to Scenario 1 implies some action to monitor traffic is necessary. Changes above Scenario 1 are not large but as noted above any increase once a junction is overloaded causes rapid deterioration in the level of service offered by the junction.

12.5.7
A number of specific junctions within the district level network were analysed in order to ascertain their performance. Some 40 junctions were selected and the analysis concentrated on the 15 junctions listed in Table 12.12 as these cover a range of road types and issues.

12.5.8
The assessment of junction performance was based on the capacity of the approach links, which already took into account the percentage of green-time available for each arm of the junction. The input flows were compared with the sum of the capacities, and to enable smooth operation of the junctions a ratio of less than 0.9 would be advisable. Operation above this ratio would create some problems and build-up of queues.

12.5.9
As Table 12.12 shows, the 15 junctions in Kowloon are forecast to have capacity problems. These are a particularly concentrated in Ngau Tau Kok and Kwun Tong but others are located in West Kowloon. Performance is generally worse under Scenario 2 compared with Scenario 1, confirming that the increased development over the OZP could be expected to lead to deterioration in junction performance at the district/local level, depending on the form of development schemes.

Table 12.12 Assessment of junction performance(1) at critical junctions
Junction No. Description AM
S1 (OZP)
AM
S2
PM
S1 (OZP)
PM
S2
1 Junction of Castle Peak Road and Tai Nan West Street 1.10 1.18 1.11 1.20
2 Junction of Argyle Street and Shanghai Street 0.89 0.92 0.86 0.89
5 Junction of Ma Tau Wai Road and Fat Kwong Street 1.01 1.05 1.08 1.13
6 Junction of Ma Tau Wai Road and Wu Hu Street 1.47 1.52 1.46 1.51
7 Junction of Clear Water Bay Road and New Clear Water Bay Road 1.21 1.23 1.16 1.17
8 Junction of Chun Wah Road and Ngau Tau Kok Road 1.44 1.54 1.36 1.45
9 Junction of Shun Lee Tsuen Road and Sau Mau Ping Road 1.02 1.08 0.99 1.04
10 Junction of Hip Wo Street and Hong Ning Road 1.09 1.11 0.96 1.02
11 Junction of Hip Wo Street and Tsui Ping Road 1.20 1.26 1.18 1.24
12 Junction of Hong Ning Road and Mut Wah Street 1.01 1.07 0.89 0.96
13 Junction of Hip Wo Street and Mut Wah Street 1.35 1.43 1.31 1.39
14 Junction of Hip Wo Street and Tung Yan Street 1.56 1.67 1.43 1.52
16 Junction of Kwun Tong Road and Hoi Yuen Road 1.02 1.07 0.94 0.99
18 Junction of Tseung Kwan O Road and Kai Tin Road 1.01 1.00 0.96 0.94
19 Junction of Lin Tak Road and Tak Tin Street 0.88 0.97 0.84 0.91
Note:
(1) Performance is indicative based on assessment of input flow to link capacity at approach
     to the junction.
(2) Improvements may be possible if junction is included in a redevelopment schemes.

12.5.10
The potential for improvement in junction performance by traffic management or infrastructure provision depends on whether there are opportunities for redevelopment to incorporate methods to reduce traffic. Some improvement for individual junctions may be possible, if these fall within the scope of a major renewal project. For example, the Tonkin Road interchange is part of such a scheme and measures are available to reduce traffic at this junction without creating other problems, including elevated pedestrianisation travelators, relocation of bus terminal etc.

12.5.11
Without potential arising from large-scale restructuring, improvement can generally be achieved only through restriction of movement or reducing pedestrian phases. Furthermore, such approaches move problems to other junctions or reduce service levels for pedestrians. As problem junctions are widespread, such measures would be unlikely to solve the whole problem.

12.5.12
The other improvement options are junction widening and provision of flyovers. However, these would normally require land take and provision of greater set-backs for new development, which would reduce development potential on the affected sites incorporate innovative methods to reduce traffic.

 

12.6 Policy measures

12.6.1
Traffic flows could be improved through a package of policy measures. The items discussed in CTS-3 could be extended to include the impact of access-controls, parking controls and further control of goods vehicle loading and unloading in peak hours. The impact of such measures would be difficult to establish with the certainty that would be required to underpin relaxation of plot ratio restrictions in Kowloon. Much would depend on the level to which government would be prepared to apply these measures and public acceptance. For example, parking controls at the destination end could be small scale specific areas, or it could be more wide ranging. Furthermore, government would need to take a balanced view of all the relevant interests, bearing in mind that some 15 years into the future there may be more acceptance of public transport especially rail, and car usage may be proportionately less so that the provision of good public transport and attractive pedestrian schemes might only require publicity drives from government to achieve the changes in travel behaviour.

12.6.2
The present Review took the view that a 15% reduction in traffic could potentially be achieved as a result of a determined effort by government to reduce traffic volumes, using a package of positive measures and restrictions. Such a reduction would be in line with the scale of reduction previous studies have suggested. For example CTS-2, when investigating the potential impact of Electronic Road Pricing, assumed a relevant peak hour traffic reduction of about 15%. Special surveys would need to be carried out to investigate sensitivity of the traffic markets to such policy changes, similar to those undertaken by the ERP Feasibility Study. Measures would need to be implemented with care, as if they are only applied in the AM peak then the off-peak or PM periods would become the critical times. The CTS-3 low end traffic levels per capita are about 12% lower than the medium growth scenario. This would represent the level that any change in the policy should be aimed for.

12.6.3
Government has indicated three policies which may be considered:

12.6.4
These policies at the moment are not specified in detail. For example, the initial schemes for pedestrianisation are only pilot schemes. However, if successful, these could become much more extensive and attract public support as the environmental and planning benefits are appreciated. Such schemes would affect access arrangement to the areas concerned and lead to changes in vehicle flows. For example, goods vehicle servicing would need to be at specific times and this could lead to more efficient usage of vehicles and reduction in peak hour flows. Cars could be reduced by restricting the number of spaces available for use at the AM peak, either by limiting entries or by imposing extra charges for those entering at that time; clearly this would need the cooperation of car park operators. The acceptability of such measures, and whether they would be necessary, cannot be stated at this time. However it should be noted that, assuming that the Medium Level forecasts are of the correct order, some action may be necessary to ensure that the Scenario 1 traffic levels would be acceptable.

12.6.5
The impact of implemented proposals should be measured over the next few years. Possible measures for implementation and monitoring may include.

12.6.6
Table 12.13 shows the projected impact on the junctions listed in Table 12.12 of the suggested 15% cut-backs in traffic based on the assumed policy measures. These junctions are representative of other areas where problems exist. Scenario 1 would operate with only a few problem areas. However, to make Scenario 2 function adequately would require further measures, and there is some doubt over the feasibility of reducing traffic by 15%. Scenario 1 could operate in most areas at a lesser level of intervention, whilst Scenario 2 would require higher levels. It should be reiterated that an approach must be in place which could accommodate the traffic levels of Scenario 1 before consideration could be given to any relaxation of plot ratios.

 

12.7 Conclusions

12.7.1
When compared with currently planned long term transport proposals expected to be in place by 2016, the analysis of growth of traffic arising from Scenario 1 in Kowloon indicates pockets of congestion in the strategic roads and at local/district junctions. Problems in the local and district network under Scenario 1 could be eased in some cases by development on sufficient scale to include redesign of local junctions or provision of facilities such as travellators or relocation of bus terminus to improve local condition.

Table 12.13 Comparison of AM peak V/C Ratio, with and without policy
Junction no. Description AM

S1
(A)

AM

S2
(B)

AM (with policy)

S1
(C)

AM (with policy)

S2
(D)

Ratio

(C)/(A)

Ratio

(D)/(B)

1 Junction of Castle Peak Road and Tai Nan West Street 1.10 1.18 0.95 1.03 0.86 0.87
2 Junction of Argyle Street and Shanghai Street 0.89 0.92 0.79 0.81 0.89 0.88
5 Junction of Ma Tau Wai Road and Fat Kwong Street 1.01 1.05 0.93 0.96 0.92 0.91
6 Junction of Ma Tau Wai Road and Wu Hu Street 1.47 1.52 1.36 1.41 0.93 0.93
7 Junction of Clear Water Bay Road and New Clear Water Bay Road 1.21 1.23 1.10 1.12 0.91 0.91
8 Junction of Chun Wah Road and Ngau Tau Kok Road 1.44 1.54 1.31 1.41 0.91 0.92
9 Junction of Shun Lee Tsuen Road and Sau Mau Ping Road 1.02 1.08 0.96 1.01 0.94 0.94
10 Junction of Hip Wo Street and Hong Ning Road 1.09 1.11 1.02 1.05 0.94 0.95
11 Junction of Hip Wo Street and Tsui Ping Road 1.20 1.26 1.12 1.17 0.93 0.93
12 Junction of Hong Ning Road and Mut Wah Street 1.01 1.07 0.91 0.98 0.90 0.92
13 Junction of Hip Wo Street and Mut Wah Street 1.35 1.43 1.25 1.34 0.93 0.94
14 Junction of Hip Wo Street and Tung Yan Street 1.56 1.67 1.42 1.51 0.91 0.90
16 Junction of Kwun Tong Road and Hoi Yuen Road 1.02 1.07 0.95 0.99 0.93 0.93
18 Junction of Tseung Kwan O Road and Kai Tin Road 1.01 1.00 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.91
19 Junction of Lin Tak Road and Tak Tin Street 0.88 0.97 0.79 0.86 0.90 0.89

12.7.2
Scenario 2 causes little overall impact on the flows on the major roads compared with Scenario 1, various increases and decreases in flow arising from the change in overall development distribution in the SAR. There is more impact on the district/local roads adjacent to the development areas, where traffic increases by up to 10% depending on area. Delays arising from congestion increase significantly with only small increases in traffic once congestion conditions are reached. Therefore acceptance of the higher level of development in Kowloon would need to depend on whether schemes would also be introduced which would with certainty address the associated traffic problems. Piecemeal redevelopment to higher plot ratios than at present without such schemes would not be acceptable.

 

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